At the annual members’ assembly in December, Confindustria Nautica shared its latest sector forecast based on the research department’s data-based outlook for the industry. This analysis, drawn from a survey of member companies in early December, points to a cautiously optimistic forecast for Italian marine industry especially the recreational boating and superyacht sectors.
The superyacht segment ended 2025 in a strong position. Half of surveyed companies saw their turnover grow compared to last year, and another 25 per cent reported steady results. Order books show growth rates are returning to normal, with half of yards keeping order levels steady and a quarter seeing more orders than last year.
Production for boats under 24 meters, such as motorboats, sailing yachts, and inflatables, has been more unpredictable. In 2025, 54 per cent of businesses expect their turnover to drop by anywhere from 5 to over 30 per cent. At the same time, 23 per cent expect things to stay the same, and another 23 per cent predict growth, which is similar to what happened in 2024.
Looking ahead to the 2025/26 maritime year, companies are more optimistic. Now, 46 per cent expect growth, 31 per cent think things will stay stable, and 23 per cent still see a possible decline. The sales network for recreational boats shows a similar pattern. For 2025, 62 per cent of respondents expect a negative result, while 38 per cent think things will stay the same. But the outlook is better for the current nautical year: only 37 per cent expect a negative outcome, 50 per cent predict stability, and 13 per cent see a return to growth.
In the marine engine segment, forecasts for 2025 are evenly split: 25 per cent expect growth, 25 per cent expect a decline, and half predict stable turnover. For the nautical year, the outlook improves, with 37 per cent now expecting growth and 50 per cent still seeing stability.
The components and equipment sector is seeing a lot of variation. In 2025, 40 per cent expect things to stay stable, while 30 per cent expect growth and another 30 per cent predict a decline, with changes ranging from plus 20 per cent to minus 30 per cent compared to 2024. This wide range shows just how diverse the sector is, covering everything from superyachts to small boats and aftersales.
For 2025/26, the number of positive responses goes up from 30 per cent to 39 per cent, which suggests that confidence is growing. Leasing and rental companies are among the most positive. In 2025, 57 per cent report turnover growth, 14 per cent see stability, and 29 per cent expect only moderate declines of up to 10 per cent. The outlook for the nautical year is even better, with 64 per cent expecting growth and just 7 per cent predicting a decline.
Early signs of a wider recovery, expected in 2026 and 2027, have already appeared at autumn boat shows like the 65th Genoa International Boat Show, helped by new product launches and changing market trends.