The Allianz Safety and Shipping Review 2026 has been published and is available to download now. It highlights geopolitical conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a major factor that shaped shipping risk and activity.
According to Allianz, incidents like the closure and reported mining of the Strait of Hormuz signal a transition toward a “new maritime order” defined by escalating security risks along strategic shipping corridors, the disruption of established trade routes, persistent uncertainty, higher risk premiums, and a greater strategic emphasis on resilience over pure cost efficiency.
Despite the long-term improvement in the industry’s safety record, loss spikes have continued to occur; while looking forward, the reshaping of sector forces is set to persist. The 2025 Safety and Shipping Review said that the “the relevance of political risk and conflict as a potential cause of maritime loss is increasing with heightened geopolitical tensions”. Today, the industry appears to be more risk-exposed in this area than at any point in recent decades.
“Our analysis shows the shipping industry has made significant improvements in maritime safety in recent years. However, it has also undergone a fundamental transformation, from decades of relative stability, defined by steady trade flows and largely predictable operating conditions to becoming increasingly complex and volatile,” explained Thomas Lillelund, CEO of Allianz Commercial, adding that the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure is just the latest in a series of severe interruptions to hit shipowners and cargo operators. Resilience, geopolitics, and efficiency must be balanced in an increasingly unpredictable world, where the cost of uncertainty is reshaping the shipping industry.
Strait of Hormuz disruption highlights importance of maritime chokepoints
The conflict in the Middle East paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil trade route. Allianz Research data shows that around 1,150 cargo-carrying vessels (over 100GT) with an estimated vessel and cargo value of approximately $125 billion, a volume of 29 million GT, and as many as 20,000 seafarers are in the Persian Gulf waiting to resume operations following recent diplomatic breakthroughs.
This underscores the structural importance of maritime chokepoints and how critical they are for shipping and international trade, while also highlighting the severe disruptions to vessel operations and mental strain that has been placed on those seafarers who have endured months on board facing the threat of attack.
Safe passage remains a prerequisite for recovery
Marine insurance cover has been available throughout the conflict, albeit at increased hull and cargo premiums. However, the real issue for shipowners has been more about the risk to the crew and the vessel when transiting a conflict zone, rather than pure insurance considerations.
Even if the US and Iran agreement holds and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened properly, solid assurances of safe passage will be required, involving the international community, particularly if traffic is to return to its pre-war levels, up to as many as 140 vessels a day.
“The events in the Middle East have been more impactful than many would have expected. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz sets a dangerous precedent and raises questions around the long-term future of this and other critical chokepoints. What is becoming clear is that we have to pay a price for uncertainty, shifting from ‘just-in-time’ to ‘just-in-case’ supply chains, and prioritizing resilience over cost efficiency,” said Captain Rahul Khanna, Global Head of Marine Risk Consulting at Allianz Commercial.
Shipping incident and loss developments
In addition to geopolitical uncertainty, traditional risks for the shipping industry highlighted in the Allianz Safety and Shipping Review 2026 remain a major concern, although the numbers of total vessel losses and incidents have continued to decline in recent years. Machinery damage or failure and fires are among the main loss drivers in this regard, leading to significant economic and insured losses.
Around the world, the number of reported shipping incidents on vessels over 100GT declined over the past year by around 16% (2,818 in 2025 compared to 3,353 in 2024).
The East Mediterranean and Black Sea region saw the highest number of reported incidents (622), followed by the British Isles (619), which is also the location of the most incidents over the past decade, reveals the Allianz Safety and Shipping Review 2026.
The South China, Indochina, Indonesia and the Philippines region is the main loss hotspot globally over the past year, and the past decade (255). A huge volume of imports and exports flow through the region, resulting in high levels of shipping traffic, which is reflected in the number of incidents.
According to the Allianz Safety and Shipping Review 2026, machinery damage or failure was the major cause of all shipping incidents globally during the past year, accounting for over half (1,505), followed by vessel collision (260) and fire / explosion (218), which remains a major concern on vessels. Machinery damage being the main cause of shipping incidents is significant as machinery claims inflation has not yet returned to pre-Covid-19 levels, with repair costs having continued to rise, a trend which could be exacerbated by the recent conflict in the Middle East.
Total vessel losses continue to decline
The review’s latest analysis shows that there have been more than 900 total losses reported over the past decade (905 vessels over 100GT).
Between 2016 and the end of 2020, there were 555, an average of 111 per year. This number declined to 350 between 2021 and the end of 2025, an average of 70 (37% down on the previous five-year period), reflecting the positive effect of an increased focus on safety measures over time, such as regulation, improved ship design and technology and risk management advances. Forty-three total losses have been reported to date for 2025, with more than 30 of these vessels over 500GT in size.
Fires on large vessels remain a persistent concern
Fires on large vessels, including container ships and car carriers, remain a worry. There were more than 200 incidents on large vessels reported during 2025, down from 2024, but still the second highest total over the past decade, with at least nine total losses reported.
Larger vessels drive more complex and costly claims
The increasing size of vessels is also driving a trend for a rise in general average claims, where the shipowner and cargo interests share losses or expenditure to save the whole venture in an emergency. Such claims are typically complex and large. Contributions to cover losses can be as high as 50% of the cargo value, which if a vessel is carrying a few thousand electric cars, for example, could easily be over US$100mn.
“Insurance markets react quickly to crises, but the real challenge for companies is understanding how risks are interconnected. That’s why resilience and risk management are becoming just as important as insurance coverage. The shipping industry is facing turbulent times, not only from geopolitical instability, but also from traditional hull and machinery risks, where we see claims costs continue to rise, as well as from decarbonization and fleet renewal challenges,” said Justus Heinrich, Global Product Leader Marine Hull at Allianz Commercial.
Download the review: Allianz Safety and Shipping Review 2026